New York City ranks safest among big US cities for gun violence

New York City, NYC, USA (Photo by TomasSereda/Istock Images)

New York City has been ranked among the top 15% safest cities out of over 800 cities in the United States, according to a recent analysis by researchers at NYU Tandon School of Engineering. This analysis underscores the effectiveness of the city’s efforts to reduce homicides.

Understanding Firearm Violence in Cities

In a study published in Nature Cities, Researchers looked at how the size of a city affects gun crimes, gun ownership, and the number of licensed gun sellers. They discovered that these things don’t just go up as a city gets bigger. The connections between these factors and city size are more complicated than people believed.

To make sense of these tricky issues, the researchers used a special tool called Scale-Adjusted Metropolitan Indicators (SAMI). This helped them compare cities of different sizes fairly. It also helped them study how gun violence, owning guns, and getting guns are connected in different cities.

Insights from the Study

Maurizio Porfiri, the senior author of the paper, highlighted the significance of the findings. He emphasized that per capita rates of gun violence do not always accurately reflect the effectiveness of gun laws or the safety of cities. The SAMI measure revealed that some larger cities with higher per capita rates of gun violence may actually be more successful in curbing gun-related harms than smaller cities with lower per capita rates.

The study also uncovered that firearm homicide and robbery rates tend to disproportionately concentrate in larger cities like New York City. Conversely, gun ownership scales sublinearly, with larger cities having fewer guns per capita than their smaller counterparts. This sheds light on the complex factors influencing firearm violence in different urban settings.

Implications for New York City

Despite common perceptions, the study found that New York City’s per capita homicide rates are significantly lower than what urban scaling laws models anticipate, considering the city’s size and its gun ecosystem. This indicates that the city is performing better in homicide prevention than commonly assumed and even outperforms the country’s 10 biggest metros in this aspect.

Future Directions

The researchers aim to expand their urban scaling theory and causal discovery approach globally to decode the complex dynamics shaping cities worldwide. This study contributes to ongoing research related to U.S. gun prevalence and violence, providing a robust quantitative basis for evaluating the effectiveness of local policies to reduce shootings.

This groundbreaking research sheds light on the multifaceted nature of firearm violence in urban environments and provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to address this pressing issue.

Ranked lists of all cities in this study

HOMICIDE SCORES – SAMI

Highest: cities that experience higher homicide rates than what their size would predict

1. Helena-West Helena, AR
2. Clarksdale, MS
3. Selma, AL
4. Greenville, MS
5. Indianola, MS
6. Grenada, MS
7. Blytheville, AR
8. Greenwood, MS
9. Pine Bluff, AR
10. Bennettsville, SC

Lowest: cities that experience lower homicide rates than what their size would predict

1. Mount Pleasant, MI
2. Rexburg, ID
3. Huntingdon, PA
4. Auburn, IN
5. Willmar, MN
6. Fremont, NE
7. Dickinson, ND
8. Ithaca, NY
9. Kearney, NE
10. Lincoln, IL

FIREARM OWNERSHIP SCORES – SAMI

Highest: cities that experience higher ownership rates than what their size would predict

1. Natchitoches, LA 
2. Bastrop, LA 
3. Cleveland, MS 
4. Tuscaloosa, AL 
5. Statesboro, GA 
6. Americus, GA 
7. Brenham, TX 
8. Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville, AL 
9. Albany, GA 
10. Troy, AL 

Lowest: cities that experience lower ownership rates than what their size would predict

1. Gallup, NM 
2. Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
3. Auburn, NY 
4. Eagle Pass, TX 
5. Ithaca, NY 
6. Kapaa, HI 
7. Hilo, HI 
8. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 
9. Lamesa, TX 
10. Freeport, IL 

LICENSED FIREARM DEALER SCORES – SAMI

Highest : cities that have more licensed dealers in them than what their size would predict

1. Prineville, OR 
2. Spearfish, SD 
3. Fredericksburg, TX 
4. Helena, MT 
5. Prescott, AZ 
6. Kalispell, MT 
7. La Grande, OR 
8. Jefferson City, MO 
9. Enterprise, AL 
10. Greeley, CO 

Lowest:  cities that have fewer licensed dealers in them than what their size would predict

1. Pecos, TX
2. Raymondville, TX
3. Eagle Pass, TX
4. El Centro, CA
5. Clarksdale, MS
6. Crescent City, CA
7. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
8. Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
9. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
10. Salinas, CA